20.1.16
You are invited to attend a lecture
By
Yakir Loewenstern
(M.Sc. student under the supervision of Prof. Doron Shmilovitz)
School of Electrical Engineering, Tel-Aviv University, Tel-Aviv 69978, Israel
System-Based Very Short Term Load
Forecasting for Power System State
Estimation
In recent years, much research has focused on Load Forecasting (LF) in large-scale electrical grids. Much of this research has dealt with short-term forecasting, up to one day ahead, which is carried out to enable satisfactory power grid operations. However, despite the emergence of Smart Grid management, models for prediction for even shorter terms (e.g. at a resolution of minutes) have not been widely considered. Furthermore, most existing LF research has not considered the fundamental characteristics of different power systems and how they affect the performance of LF methods.
In this talk, we begin by introducing Very Short Term Load Forecasting (VSTLF), and then discuss its importance and potential applications in Smart Grid operations in general, and Power System State Estimation for the Smart Grid in particular.
Next, we discuss statistical properties that can be used to characterize different power systems.
We then review different kinds of LF techniques and error measures used in LF studies, and describe the five VSTLF methods and the error measure used in our study.
We proceed to present our results: a statistical characterization of the eleven power systems which comprise the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO), and comparison of the accuracy of the five VSTLF techniques when applied to the NYISO systems. The comparisons illustrate the significant differences between systems, both in statistical characteristics and in potential forecasting accuracy. Lastly, we discuss our conclusions and present numerous topics and directions for future research.
Wednesday, January 20, 2015, at 10:00
Room 032, Laboratories building
You are invited to attend a lecture
By
Yakir Loewenstern
(M.Sc. student under the supervision of Prof. Doron Shmilovitz)
School of Electrical Engineering, Tel-Aviv University, Tel-Aviv 69978, Israel
System-Based Very Short Term Load
Forecasting for Power System State
Estimation
In recent years, much research has focused on Load Forecasting (LF) in large-scale electrical grids. Much of this research has dealt with short-term forecasting, up to one day ahead, which is carried out to enable satisfactory power grid operations. However, despite the emergence of Smart Grid management, models for prediction for even shorter terms (e.g. at a resolution of minutes) have not been widely considered. Furthermore, most existing LF research has not considered the fundamental characteristics of different power systems and how they affect the performance of LF methods.
In this talk, we begin by introducing Very Short Term Load Forecasting (VSTLF), and then discuss its importance and potential applications in Smart Grid operations in general, and Power System State Estimation for the Smart Grid in particular.
Next, we discuss statistical properties that can be used to characterize different power systems.
We then review different kinds of LF techniques and error measures used in LF studies, and describe the five VSTLF methods and the error measure used in our study.
We proceed to present our results: a statistical characterization of the eleven power systems which comprise the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO), and comparison of the accuracy of the five VSTLF techniques when applied to the NYISO systems. The comparisons illustrate the significant differences between systems, both in statistical characteristics and in potential forecasting accuracy. Lastly, we discuss our conclusions and present numerous topics and directions for future research.
Wednesday, January 20, 2015, at 10:00
Room 032, Laboratories building
